BOCIC(SH:601696) Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-10-19 14:39Group 1 - The current economic recovery in China is focusing on demand-side strategies as a key breakthrough point [6][2] - 71% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate for the third quarter will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, while 75% expect a growth rate of 4.8% to 5.1% for the entire year of 2025 [1] - 90% of economists believe that the real estate market is only experiencing a slowdown in decline and has not yet reached the bottom [1][15] Group 2 - The survey indicates that 33% of economists are concerned about employment pressure, 26% about external influences like finance and foreign trade, 23% about significant declines in housing prices, and 18% about debt risks [28] - The central government is implementing policies to address "involution" in various industries, including glass, cement, and steel, to improve product quality and reduce excess capacity [8][14] - The real estate market is seen as a critical support for stable growth, with recent policy adjustments signaling a strong commitment to stabilize the housing market [15][16] Group 3 - The impact of external uncertainties, particularly trade friction, is highlighted as a significant variable affecting economic operations [28] - Economists suggest that the recovery of the real estate market requires a coordinated effort from residents' income expectations, price signals, and the macroeconomic fundamentals [15][16] - The survey shows that 95% of economists expect the USD to RMB exchange rate to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.5 in 2025 [17]