平静还是风暴？10月19日或触发金价历史性重现

Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have mirrored past events, particularly the 2015 Federal Reserve interest rate hike, leading to significant price drops after reaching historical highs [1][3] - Market sentiment has shifted dramatically, with a 97% probability of interest rate cuts, yet any hesitation from the Federal Reserve could trigger sharp declines in gold prices [3] - The total market value of gold has surpassed $30 trillion, indicating a concentration of investment that could lead to severe sell-offs [3] Group 1 - Gold prices recently hit a historical high of $4,379 before plummeting below $4,200, with a single-day drop exceeding 3% [1] - Domestic gold prices followed suit, with a notable decrease of 17 yuan per gram for Lao Miao gold, leading to public discontent among recent buyers [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 78, indicating an overbought condition similar to the pre-2015 interest rate hike scenario [3] Group 2 - Current gold prices are struggling around $4,250, with critical support levels at $4,200 and potential further declines to $3,887 if these levels are breached [3] - The domestic futures market shows signs of weakness, with MACD indicating divergence and reduced trading volume, suggesting insufficient bullish momentum [3] - Despite ongoing purchases by global central banks, including China, which has increased its gold holdings for ten consecutive months, short-term trading conditions are becoming riskier for retail investors [4]