经济学家宋清辉：黄金与股票或不再此消彼长

Core Viewpoint - Successful investment is not about chasing short-term fluctuations of a single asset, but about achieving long-term returns through diversified allocation. The rise of the Chinese stock market does not imply a decrease in gold investment demand; rather, gold's role in Chinese investors' asset portfolios may become more significant than ever due to the upgrading of wealth management concepts and increasing global economic cycle volatility [1][7]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - During the National Day holiday, the international gold market attracted global investors, with gold prices briefly surpassing $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high due to geopolitical uncertainties, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, and continuous accumulation of gold by global central banks [4]. - The strong rise in gold prices reflects long-term macroeconomic changes rather than short-term speculative trading. The global economy has entered a "new normal" characterized by low growth, high inflation, and frequent geopolitical risks since 2024 [5]. - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with emerging market countries accounting for nearly 70% of net gold purchases in 2024, indicating a shift towards diversifying reserve assets amid declining trust in the dollar system [5]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Asset Allocation - Gold, as a non-debt asset, does not rely on any sovereign credit, making it a preferred asset for hedging systemic risks during economic cycles' turning points and heightened financial market volatility [6]. - The traditional view of an inverse relationship between gold and stock markets is weakening, as global investors are increasingly adopting diversified asset allocation strategies that include stocks, bonds, and gold to balance returns and risks [6]. - The changing structure of Chinese investors, with a growing emphasis on wealth management, has led to a more stable demand for gold. There is a noticeable trend towards diversifying asset allocation, with gold becoming an essential component of stable asset allocation rather than merely a safe haven [7].