中美谁治谁？

Core Points - The year 2025 is not the most tense in Sino-U.S. relations, with smooth communication and no military tensions, but trade issues persist [1] - This year may mark a turning point in economic relations, with China shifting from patient restraint to clear countermeasures [2] Historical Context - The U.S. has historically held a dominant position in global trade, having initiated frameworks like the GATT and WTO [5][6] - Currently, the U.S. operates outside these frameworks, imposing tariffs and sanctions unilaterally [6][7] Background of Countermeasures - The trade war initiated by Trump in April 2025 has led to ongoing tensions, with both cooperation and friction in various sectors [8][9] - The U.S. aims to reduce reliance on China by bringing manufacturing back home and exerting pressure [9] Nature of Countermeasures - China views economic relations as mutually beneficial and prefers negotiation over conflict, but is prepared to respond if provoked [10] - Recent rounds of talks have yielded some consensus, but underlying tensions remain due to the U.S.'s simultaneous imposition of new restrictions [12] Specific Countermeasures - China has announced export controls on rare earth materials and high-performance lithium batteries, effective December 1 and November 8 respectively [13][14] - A special port fee on U.S. vessels has been implemented as a direct response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipping [15] Impact of Countermeasures - China's export controls on rare earths could significantly impact the semiconductor supply chain, as these materials are crucial for production [16][17] - The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports for lithium-ion batteries, with 65% of such batteries for grid storage sourced from China [18] Future Developments - The U.S. is adjusting its stance, recognizing the potential for economic harm from escalating tariffs and restrictions [22] - Upcoming APEC meetings may provide a platform for de-escalation, with both sides seeking to avoid further deterioration of trade relations [22][23] Long-term Considerations - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the interdependence of the U.S. and China, with both economies unable to fully disengage without significant costs [27] - Technological innovation remains a critical battleground, with the U.S. attempting to stifle China's advancements through stricter controls [28] Conclusion - The relationship between the U.S. and China is characterized by a complex interplay of cooperation and conflict, with both sides recognizing the need for a balanced approach to avoid detrimental outcomes [34][36]