“双焦”期价走强 本周需重点关注哪些因素？

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of coking coal and coke futures prices is primarily driven by policy expectations and supply-demand dynamics in the market [1] Group 1: Policy Expectations - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and the Central Political Bureau meeting are expected to influence demand-side policies for coal, which is a key focus for the market [1] - The market is closely monitoring potential demand-side policies that may emerge from these macroeconomic meetings [4] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Recent coal mine accidents in Inner Mongolia and increased safety inspections in Shaanxi province have raised concerns about the stability of coking coal supply in the fourth quarter [1] - The overall daily production of coking coal has increased to 77.9 million tons, but the supply remains under pressure due to safety regulations and inspections [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of October 17, the average daily production of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, showing a decrease of 1.27 million tons week-on-week [2] - Coking coal inventories at independent coking plants decreased by 6.55 million tons, while steel mills' coke inventories fell by 11.38 million tons, indicating a reduction in overall inventory levels [2] - The demand for coking coal remains strong due to high iron output from downstream steel mills, which is expected to continue until the end of October [1][2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The current market conditions suggest a strong but potentially limited upward price movement for coking coal and coke, influenced by macroeconomic policies and seasonal demand changes [4] - The potential for further price increases exists if demand-side policies exceed expectations and if supply remains tight due to regulatory pressures [4]