Group 1: Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with both manufacturing and service sectors showing decreased activity, and the labor market showing signs of fatigue [1] - In Europe, the economy is stabilizing under the influence of continuous interest rate cuts, leading to increased credit growth for households and businesses, although structural issues and energy bottlenecks persist [1] - Japan's economy remains relatively stable with rising household income and improved consumer confidence, but faces new challenges from US tariffs and yen appreciation impacting manufacturing and exports [1] Group 2: Asset Outlook - US Treasury yields are expected to decline towards 3.5% as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, with European bond yields also expected to decrease due to easing inflation pressures [2] - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the differing monetary policy trajectories among the US, Eurozone, and Japan [2] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are noted due to increased margin requirements and prior price surges, while medium-term support remains strong from fiscal debt, monetary easing, and sovereign gold purchases [2]
【华西大类资产】美欧日政策差异下的弱美元——2025Q4海外经济与资产展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-20 00:20