Tesla(US:TSLA) ZACKSยท2025-10-20 00:36Core Insights - Tesla is set to report its Q3 2025 earnings on October 22, with the stock having experienced significant volatility despite a 34,000% return since its IPO in 2010 [1] - The stock has risen 93% in the past six months, but faces challenges such as new tariffs, a slowing EV market, and increased competition [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Zacks Consensus Estimates predict Q3 revenue of $26.45 billion, reflecting a 5.05% year-over-year growth, while EPS is expected to be $0.53, down 26.39% from the previous year [2][5] - For the current year, total revenue is estimated at $93.12 billion, with a slight decline of 4.68% year-over-year, and next year's revenue is projected to grow by 16% to $108.02 billion [5] Earnings Surprise History - Tesla has missed analyst expectations in six of the past ten quarters, with an average surprise of -3.65% over the last four quarters [6][7] Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The options market indicates an expected move of approximately 8.5% post-earnings, with historical average moves around 10.53% [10] - TSLA shares are currently forming a bull flag pattern, with potential upward movement towards previous highs if expectations are exceeded [11] Key Catalysts for Future Performance - Investors will focus on whether Tesla's legacy EV business has stabilized, especially after record vehicle deliveries and changes in federal EV tax credits [13] - The growth of Tesla's energy segment, which saw a 67% increase last year, is also a critical area of interest, particularly with rising demand for energy storage solutions [14] - Timelines for new products such as FSD, Robotaxis, and Optimus will be closely monitored, as investor confidence hinges on Elon Musk's ability to meet these aggressive targets [14]