“十五五”时期中国经济潜在增速研究

Core Insights - The report analyzes China's potential economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, estimating a baseline growth rate of 4.5%-5.3% and an optimistic scenario of 5.1%-5.8% [1][9][43]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The baseline scenario predicts an average annual growth rate of approximately 5.3%, while the optimistic scenario could reach 5.8% [1][28]. - If actual growth meets potential levels, per capita GDP could reach approximately $17,200 by 2030 and $22,400 by 2035 [1][28]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Growth - Capital stock growth is expected to average around 5.5% annually, contributing approximately 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth, despite a slowdown due to declining savings and investment rates [2][17]. - Labor force decline due to aging demographics is projected to reduce GDP growth by about 0.08 percentage points annually, despite improvements in labor quality [2][21]. - Total factor productivity (TFP) is anticipated to be a key growth driver, with baseline annual growth around 2% and optimistic growth potentially reaching 3% [2][27]. Group 3: Recommendations for Sustaining Growth - The report suggests multiple strategies to mitigate the decline in potential growth, including enhancing innovation, optimizing factor allocation, and improving population policies [3][47]. - It emphasizes the need to expand domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market to find new growth models [3][49]. - The report advocates for a balanced approach to total and structural relationships, focusing on cultivating new productivity systems and responding effectively to external environmental changes [3][47].