资金涌入避风港！时隔半年，美债收益率跌破4%

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a classic flight-to-safety trend due to credit concerns and trade tensions, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% for the first time since April, and the 2-year yield reaching its lowest level since 2022 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The regional bank credit risks have led to significant market volatility, prompting investors to flock to Treasuries for safety, resulting in the regional bank stock index experiencing its largest drop since April [1]. - The 2-year Treasury yield fell below 3.4%, while the 10-year yield touched a low of 3.93%, marking a significant decline in yields [1][3]. - The current market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29, with investors viewing the 10-year yield of 4% as a safe allocation amidst high valuations in the stock and credit markets [1][4]. Group 2: Future Expectations - The future trajectory of Treasury yields largely depends on traders' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts over the next 12 months, with a consensus anticipating further cuts in December and potentially two more by mid-2026 [4][6]. - The upcoming release of the September CPI report is expected to temporarily halt further declines in Treasury yields, with economists predicting a year-over-year CPI of 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% inflation target [6]. - Analysts suggest that the 10-year Treasury yield may have room to fall below 4%, but this would require a significant worsening of current conditions [4][5][6].