定调！2025年房地产走势定了，4.4万亿资金入场，市场迎来关键转折

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is determined to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the need for a more proactive approach to promote healthy development in both the real estate and stock markets [1][3]. Policy Measures - The government report outlines a shift from "firefighting" to "recovery," with a focus on implementing moderately loose monetary policies and utilizing 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds for direct interventions like land acquisition and stock housing purchases [3][5]. - The report indicates a removal of specific debt relief measures for real estate companies, instead prioritizing a balanced approach to development and safety [3]. Market Data - From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment reached 27,730 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, while residential investment fell by 9.6%. However, the National Housing Prosperity Index slightly rebounded to 93.86 [4]. - New housing sales saw a narrowing decline of 0.2 percentage points, and the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 5.22 million square meters, signaling a potential market recovery [4]. Local Initiatives - Various provinces, such as Shanxi and Wuhan, are implementing measures like tax reductions and increased stock housing purchases to stimulate demand and promote sales [7][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling new land supply while revitalizing existing commercial properties, with a focus on reducing inventory levels [7]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights the need for policies that reduce restrictive measures and promote urban village renovations, which are expected to drive housing demand by 0.75 to 1 billion square meters [11]. - The market is showing signs of differentiation, with first-tier cities experiencing a recovery in new housing sales, while second-hand housing prices continue to decline [13]. Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, new housing prices in 100 cities increased by 1.16%, supported by improved project offerings, while second-hand housing prices fell by 3.60% [13]. - The land market is also experiencing disparities, with significant land sale revenues in cities like Hangzhou and Beijing, while other cities see lower transaction values [13].