LPR连续5个月“按兵不动”：央行稳字当头的背后逻辑与四季度政策前瞻

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy amid fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts and weak domestic real estate sales [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The stability of the LPR was anticipated following the PBOC's decision to maintain the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate at 2.75% while renewing 500 billion yuan [3]. - The one-year LPR has remained stable since a 10 basis point reduction in June, while the five-year LPR has gradually decreased from 4.3% since August of the previous year, indicating a shift from aggressive monetary easing to more precise support measures [3][6]. - The current banking net interest margin has fallen below 1.7%, prompting banks to lower deposit rates to create space for LPR stability, reflecting a balance sought by the PBOC between bank profitability and financing costs for the real economy [5]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Balance - The decision to keep the LPR unchanged is influenced by a balance between inflation and growth, with September's CPI showing zero growth and PPI rising by 0.4%, alongside rising international oil prices and potential import price increases due to currency fluctuations [6]. - Despite a GDP growth of 4.9% in Q3, concerns remain regarding a 9.1% decline in real estate investment and continuous negative export growth, suggesting that maintaining low interest rates supports manufacturing and infrastructure financing while avoiding additional pressure on the currency [6][7]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC's monetary policy committee has indicated that the LPR is likely to remain stable until at least December, with a focus on observing the effects of previous measures [7]. - Should certain conditions arise, such as a conclusion to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle or significant changes in domestic inflation or real estate sales, the PBOC may consider emergency measures [7]. - The PBOC is more inclined to use reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts rather than interest rate cuts, with an average RRR of 7.4%, allowing for liquidity release while reducing bank funding costs [7]. Group 4: Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC has emphasized the use of structural tools, with over 6 trillion yuan in re-lending and a focus on targeted infrastructure projects to avoid broad monetary easing while supporting weak sectors [8]. - The deepening of interest rate marketization through deposit rate cuts and adjustments to existing mortgage rates aims to alleviate bank margin pressures and stimulate consumer spending [8]. - The unchanged five-year LPR, coupled with adjustments to real estate credit policies, suggests that certain cities may implement lower interest rate floors to stimulate local markets [8].