植田和男传递谨慎信号 市场押注日本央行明年1月加息

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo remains uncertain about the timing of interest rate hikes amid global economic headwinds and trade tensions between the U.S. and China, despite some internal pressure for quicker action [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global growth forecast for 2025 but warns that renewed U.S.-China trade tensions could hinder output [3]. - Ueda's views on the global and U.S. economies have not changed significantly since his time in Japan, indicating a cautious approach to potential rate hikes [1][2]. Group 2: Internal Pressure for Rate Hikes - There is increasing pressure within the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, as inflation has remained above the 2% target for three consecutive years [3]. - Two members of the Bank's nine-member board proposed a rate hike in September, reflecting a growing sentiment for action [3]. Group 3: Risks of Delaying Rate Hikes - Delaying interest rate increases could lead to further depreciation of the yen, which would raise import prices and living costs [4]. - The potential new Prime Minister, who supports loose monetary policy, may limit the Bank's ability to communicate effectively before the next policy meeting [4].