合成橡胶：关税风云再起合成顺势下行

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market is experiencing downward pressure due to concerns over potential tariffs in the U.S. and a bearish outlook on supply and demand fundamentals, although there are expectations of potential positive macroeconomic developments from upcoming meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders [1][3]. Market Overview - This week, the prices of styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (BR) have shown a downward trend, influenced by tariff concerns and a bearish supply-demand outlook. Despite some speculative demand due to lower prices, the overall market remains under pressure [1][5]. - The average price of natural rubber (NR) has decreased by 2.91% compared to last week, while the average price of butadiene has dropped by 1.03% [1]. - SBR prices fell by 2.99% and BR prices decreased by 1.57% compared to the previous week, reflecting a downward shift in market sentiment [1][5]. Macroeconomic Factors - There has been no official announcement regarding tariff issues from overseas, leading to a lack of clarity in the market. Domestically, there is a strong stance on rare earth controls and shipping fees, with limited other relevant news [3]. - Anticipation of meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders at the end of October may create a positive sentiment regarding policy and tariff easing [3]. Natural Rubber Market - The futures prices of natural rubber have declined, causing the spot market prices to follow suit. The initial drop in prices led to increased purchasing activity from factories, providing some support at lower price levels [3][5]. - However, as rubber prices rebounded, purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers has cooled, leading to a more subdued trading environment [3]. Synthetic Rubber Supply and Demand - The price of butadiene has slightly decreased, which negatively impacts the synthetic rubber market. Most production facilities, except for a few undergoing maintenance, are operating at high capacity, maintaining pressure on overall supply [5]. - Downstream tire manufacturers are gradually resuming operations post-holiday, but low raw material inventories provide some support for bottom prices. However, seasonal weakness in overseas orders is limiting demand, further pressuring synthetic rubber prices [5]. Price Outlook - The outlook for SBR and BR prices next week is expected to be characterized by strong fluctuations due to two main factors: potential positive macroeconomic developments and increased speculative demand supporting the market [6].