Ge Long Hui·2025-10-20 02:59Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Life Insurance expects a significant increase in after-tax net profit for the first three quarters of the year, projecting a year-on-year rise of 50% to 70%, reaching between 157 billion to 178 billion yuan, which is well above market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The after-tax net profit for the third quarter is anticipated to increase by 75% to 106% year-on-year, primarily driven by substantial growth in investment income and a recovery in insurance service operations [1] - The estimated new business value (VNB) for the first three quarters is expected to rise by 36% year-on-year, compared to a 20% increase in the first half of the year, indicating strong growth momentum in the third quarter [1] Dividend Expectations - Despite the strong anticipated performance in after-tax net profit for the year, it is believed that dividends will not increase at the same rate, as the group's goal is stable dividend growth [1] - Assuming a dividend increase of 10% to 30%, the H-share dividend yield is projected to reach between 3.4% to 4% [1] Target Price Adjustment - Based on the earnings forecast, expansion of asset management scale, and rising interest rates, the profit forecasts for after-tax net profit for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 79%, 23%, and 24% respectively [1] - The target price for China Life Insurance has been adjusted from 27.4 HKD to 29 HKD, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]