Economic Overview - In September, the 30-year Treasury futures contract fell by 2.28%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.02% and 0.11% respectively. The 2-year contract decreased by 0.05% [1] - The yield on the 30-year active bond increased by 11.2 basis points to 2.13%, while the 10-year yield rose by 0.3 basis points to 1.783%. The 5-year yield decreased by 0.75 basis points to 1.59%, with the spread between the 30-year and 10-year bonds widening by nearly 11 basis points [1] - Economic data showed improvement in September, with foreign trade growth remaining resilient despite a slight decline in CPI by 0.3% and PPI by 2.3% [1] Policy Environment - The third quarter entered a fiscal and monetary vacuum, with no anticipated rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, instead relying on monthly reverse repos to support liquidity [2] - The supply of special bonds has nearly reached its limit for the year, shifting market focus to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in the fourth quarter [2] - The bond market is expected to be in a favorable environment in the fourth quarter, with trading sentiment primarily driven by liquidity shifts between assets [2] Market Strategy - The bond market's response to fundamental data has become muted, with trading sentiment dominating the current market rhythm [2] - Recommended strategies include buying the 30-year Treasury futures on dips, focusing on the main contract of the 10-year Treasury, and engaging in cross-product arbitrage between the 5-year and 30-year contracts [2]
期债 关注逢低做多机会
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-10-20 03:04