前三季度投资增速下降0.5%，财政发力或将推动基建增速反弹

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment in China decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September, compared to a growth of 0.5% from January to August [1] Infrastructure Investment - From January to September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 1.1%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points from the growth rate in August [2] - The rapid decline in infrastructure investment growth is attributed to a strong economic performance in the first half of the year, which reduced the demand for stable growth in infrastructure investment [3] - There is potential for infrastructure investment to accelerate due to the impact of high tariffs from the U.S. and weakening external demand, with expectations that it will serve as a stabilizer for the macro economy [3] - The annual growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is projected to reach around 3.0%, a slowdown of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Real Estate Investment - National real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year from January to September, with the decline widening by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous period [5] - New commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, totaling 65,835 million square meters [5] - The amount of funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, totaling 72,299 billion [5] - The decline in real estate investment is primarily due to real estate companies reducing their balance sheets in response to liquidity challenges and pressure on their financial statements [6] - However, the approval of "white list" loans by commercial banks has increased significantly, which may improve the funding sources for real estate companies [5][6]