金价高位回调，黄金ETF基金(159937)回调超2%，是为逢低加仓好时机？

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs reflects a significant increase in gold prices driven by geopolitical risks and changes in global liquidity expectations, with a notable rise in trading volume and net inflows into gold ETFs [4][5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of October 20, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) has decreased by 2.36%, with a latest price of 9.33 yuan, while showing an 11.33% increase over the past week as of October 17 [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF reached 12.23 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.14%, and an average daily trading volume of 31.28 billion yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in international gold prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risk, a weakening global credit system, and changing liquidity expectations, with multiple factors contributing to the current market dynamics [4][5]. - Key pressures on the gold market include a high concentration of long positions and the potential for speculative funds to take profits, which could lead to increased volatility and a possible price correction [4]. Group 3: Institutional Trends - There has been a consistent net inflow into the largest gold ETF, SPDR, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, although its reserves remain lower than the global average of 15%-20% [5]. - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold investments is observed across both institutional and individual investors [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as a weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical instability, which are expected to support continued central bank purchases of gold [5]. - The latest share count for the gold ETF reached 4.166 billion, marking a one-year high [5].