如何考量风险？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of considering risks in investment, particularly in gold, advocating for the purchase of physical gold over paper gold due to the inherent risks associated with the latter [1][4][44]. Group 1: Investment in Gold - The author has consistently supported the investment in physical gold, distinguishing it from trading in paper gold [2][3]. - The recent surge in gold prices is viewed with caution, as it may indicate underlying issues such as increased risk of defaults among gold retailers [4][7][8]. - The ratio of paper gold to physical gold is highlighted, with a reference to paper gold being 126 times that of physical gold, indicating significant counterparty risk [9][11]. Group 2: Risk Assessment - The article discusses the concept of risk, emphasizing that risk assessment should consider the nature of the investment, the individuals involved, and the investor's control over the situation [17][27]. - It is noted that human nature plays a critical role in risk, as individuals may be tempted to take excessive risks when managing paper gold [20][41]. - The importance of holding physical assets is reiterated as a means to mitigate risks associated with human behavior and market volatility [23][36]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The article stresses the significance of holding time in investment decisions, suggesting that long-term holding of physical gold can serve as a hedge against various risks [31][34]. - The psychological aspect of owning physical gold versus paper gold is discussed, with physical gold providing a sense of security and reducing the temptation to frequently trade [39][40]. - The author concludes that while larger institutions may be less likely to face systemic risks, smaller entities could pose a threat, reinforcing the recommendation to invest in physical gold [42][43].