通华财富：9月市场震荡与政策协同下的投资新机遇

Global Market Performance - The global asset prices have shown significant divergence since September, with the A-share market continuing to fluctuate around 3800 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices demonstrate stronger resilience, indicating structural opportunities in growth sectors [3] - The Hong Kong stock market has strengthened under the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.31% in one week and net inflows into the E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF exceeding 3.5 billion yuan in the past month, surpassing 20 billion yuan in total scale [3] - The gold market has maintained its strong performance, with spot gold prices in London surpassing 3700 USD per ounce on September 22, reaching a historical high, and domestic retail prices for gold exceeding 1078 yuan per gram [3] Policy Impact - Multiple significant policies have been implemented in September, impacting the capital market profoundly, including a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by the central bank to release medium- and long-term liquidity, effectively countering short-term pressures from government bond issuance and stock market fund diversion [5] - A personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy was officially implemented on September 1, expected to mobilize trillions of yuan in credit funds towards key sectors such as automotive, elderly care, and cultural tourism, directly boosting domestic demand [5] - The regulatory authorities are promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, with the top 100 fund distribution institutions holding equity fund assets reaching 5.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.89% [5] Investment Strategy - The company recommends a balanced allocation strategy focusing on three main directions: technology leaders in Hong Kong benefiting from liquidity improvement, consumption recovery sectors driven by policy, and high-dividend defensive assets such as utilities [7] - For gold investments, it is suggested to participate through gold ETFs and gold stocks, with a note on the short-term price increase and the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve policy expectations and dollar exchange rate fluctuations [7] - The "fixed income +" strategy has shown promising performance in 2025, with over 1700 products achieving positive returns year-to-date, and a median return exceeding 3%, making it suitable for conservative investors [7] Market Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, anticipating a resonance in monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S., the release of domestic policy dividends, and the deepening of capital market reforms [10]