美已暴露虚弱，特朗普想妥协，高盛预测：中美或永久冻结关税升级

Group 1 - The U.S.-China trade war has become a significant challenge for the Trump administration, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicating that a proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods "may not be implemented" [1] - Trump's statements reflect a contradictory stance, warning of the need to remain vigilant against China while also suggesting that U.S.-China relations are fair and that future issues may not arise [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that the current tensions appear to be a prelude to the upcoming APEC summit, with the U.S. likely seeking to gain negotiation leverage against China [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. may choose to extend the tariff truce established in May, with the possibility of "indefinitely freezing tariff escalations" [3] - China's response to U.S. pressure has been both firm and flexible, with a recent statement demanding the U.S. cease threats of increased tariffs while leaving room for future negotiations [3] - China has implemented strict export controls on rare earth materials starting December 1, which directly impacts U.S. manufacturing, particularly in defense [3][4] Group 3 - China's countermeasures are seen as strategic, targeting areas of significant importance rather than engaging in direct confrontation [4] - Despite China's strategic advantages, challenges remain, as ongoing trade disputes may accelerate the shift of U.S. companies' supply chains back to the U.S., although the U.S. lacks the capability to establish a complete industrial chain [5] - As the APEC summit approaches, there is speculation that if both sides show a willingness to negotiate, the U.S. may lower some tariffs in exchange for concessions from China regarding rare earth controls [7]