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研报掘金丨中金:上调2026年澳门总博彩收入预测 看好美高梅中国及金沙中国
Ge Long Hui·2025-10-20 05:25

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its 2025 total gaming revenue forecast for Macau while raising the 2026 forecast, expecting total gaming revenue to grow by 9% and 5% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels respectively [1] Industry Summary - The estimated industry EBITDA for Q3 is projected to reach $2.108 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2%, recovering to 91% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Total gaming revenue remains resilient; however, increased market competition and rising reinvestment rates are putting pressure on EBITDA [1] Company Summary - CICC is optimistic about MGM China and Sands China, forecasting adjusted EBITDA for Q3 to be HKD 2.352 billion and $590 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19% and 1% [1] - Target prices for MGM China and Sands China are set at HKD 19.8 and HKD 23.8, both receiving an "outperform" rating [1]