全国二手房同比、环比仍在下降，今年“金九银十”成色落空

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in second-hand housing prices across 70 major cities in September, suggesting a weak performance in the traditional peak buying season [1][2] - First-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decrease of 1% in second-hand residential prices, with specific declines in Beijing (0.9%), Shanghai (1%), Guangzhou (0.8%), and Shenzhen (1%) [1] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a 3.2% drop in second-hand housing prices, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 5% and 5.7%, respectively [1][2] Second-hand Housing Market - The overall trend in second-hand housing prices remains downward, with a slight narrowing of the decline in year-on-year figures [1][2] - The average time for second-hand housing listings has increased to 95 days, indicating challenges in inventory turnover, especially in smaller cities [4][5] New Housing Market - In contrast, new housing prices showed some resilience, with cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou reporting month-on-month increases of 0.3% [1][2] - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new housing prices increased by 5.6%, while Hangzhou saw a 3.6% rise, highlighting a divergence in market performance [1][2] Real Estate Development Trends - From January to September, national real estate development investment totaled 6.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, with residential investment down by 12.9% [2][3] - The total area under construction for real estate development fell by 9.4%, with residential construction area declining by 9.7% [2][3] Market Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to see continued policy support for core cities, which may stabilize transaction volumes and price expectations [4] - However, non-core areas and many smaller cities will likely need to rely on price adjustments to manage inventory levels effectively [4][5]