市场预期恶化！美政府最长停摆纪录或被打破

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government shutdown, initially expected to last only two to three weeks, is evolving into a significant crisis that may extend into November, with analysts predicting it could become the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history [1] Duration of Shutdown - The shutdown has already lasted 20 days, with the longest previous shutdown being 35 days during Trump's first term [1] - Market predictions indicate the shutdown could last approximately 41 days, a significant increase from earlier forecasts of just 14 days [1][2] - Key dates include November 1, when the "Obamacare" enrollment begins, which may pressure both parties to reach an agreement [2] Factors Influencing Resolution - The deadlock is primarily due to disagreements over including "Obamacare" subsidy extensions in the funding bill, with the actual deadline for subsidy action being December 31 [2] - Travel delays due to personnel shortages at airports could also pressure negotiations, as TSA and air traffic control staff are working without pay [2] - Analysts suggest that public sentiment regarding travel issues or rising healthcare costs could serve as potential breakthroughs for ending the shutdown [2] Economic Impact - Economists estimate that the shutdown could result in a GDP loss of approximately 0.1% to 0.2% per week [3][4] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 3.8%, indicating that while the immediate impact seems small, prolonged shutdowns could lead to larger economic consequences [4] - Over 4,100 layoff notices have been issued, with potential final numbers exceeding 10,000, although a federal judge has temporarily blocked these layoffs [4] Market Sentiment - A poll indicated that 47% of respondents are most concerned about the economic impact of the shutdown, surpassing concerns about travel disruptions and unpaid employee wages [4] - Analysts from Wolfe Research remain optimistic, suggesting that as long as military personnel continue to receive pay, the long-term impacts of the shutdown may be limited [5] - Independent economists warn that while a recession may not be imminent, the shutdown could have lasting effects on an already fragile economy [5]