白银预测：回调抑或蓄势？交易员紧盯价格未来动向

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices reached a historic high of $54.49 per ounce, the highest level since 1980, but subsequently retreated as traders shifted from strong buying to weak buying [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2019, available silver stocks in London have plummeted by 76%, leading to a rare and costly short squeeze [2]. - The recent surge in silver prices was driven by significant investment flows, increasing physical shortages, and escalating geopolitical risks [4]. - The available "free float" of silver has decreased from 850 million ounces in 2019 to 200 million ounces last week, indicating a structural deficit and ongoing supply shortages [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December are expected to provide long-term support for the silver market [3][5]. - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and new credit pressures reported by regional banks have boosted investor demand for precious metals [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Factors - Renewed concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with silver benefiting from its dual role as both an industrial and monetary metal [5]. - The intensifying trade tensions may reduce industrial demand for silver, particularly amid a global manufacturing slowdown [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Price Outlook - Silver remains in a bullish trend, but correction risks are rising, with $49.81 identified as the first major support level [11]. - If the price fails to hold above this support, it could trigger broader profit-taking, potentially dragging prices down to $44.22 or even $41.40 [11]. - The recent price action indicates that unless new catalysts emerge, silver's upward movement may be hindered by gold's recent pullback [8].