Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-20 07:08Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities initiates coverage on Hang Lung Properties (00101) with a "Buy" rating, anticipating stable rental income growth as the Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou opens in phases, with capital expenditure and net debt ratio expected to decline from 2026, and dividends likely to remain stable and return to pure cash dividends [1] Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on high-end shopping malls, occupying core business districts, with 10 high-end malls in 9 major cities in mainland China as of H1 2025, establishing itself as a benchmark mall through years of operation and updates, particularly the Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, which has become a leading luxury mall in Shanghai after over 20 years of operation [1] Group 2: Rental Income Performance - The core projects, Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza and Shanghai Port International Plaza, contribute over 50% of the rental income from retail properties in mainland China, with rental income growth turning positive in H1 2025, indicating stabilization in core project performance and potential narrowing of overall rental income decline in 2025 due to the opening of Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza's office space in the second half of 2025 [2] Group 3: Future Growth from Hangzhou Project - The Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza, set to open part of its office space in the second half of 2025, has a pre-leasing rate of 22% as of H1 2025, while the shopping center portion has a pre-leasing rate of 77%, which is expected to enhance the company's recurring income and support stable dividend capabilities [3] Group 4: Dividend Stability - From 2013 to 2022, the company maintained a steady increase in cash dividends per share, but proposed a scrip dividend for the first time at the end of 2023, resulting in a 33% decline in the first dividend per share to HKD 0.52 in 2024; however, with expected narrowing of rental income decline and significant reduction in capital expenditure post-completion of Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza, the company is believed to have the capacity to maintain stable dividends and potentially restore pure cash dividends after the retail portion opens [4] Group 5: Debt Management - As of H1 2025, the company's net debt ratio stands at 33.5%, stable compared to the end of 2024; it is anticipated that the net debt ratio will decline by the end of 2026 following the opening of the retail portion of Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza in the first half of 2026 [5]