国产商业火箭 “批量上天” 背后……

Core Insights - The frequency of domestic commercial rocket launches is accelerating, with a "batch launch" trend emerging, as evidenced by the successful launch of the Yao-8 rocket carrying three satellites [1] - In August alone, China completed nine commercial launch missions, with a total of at least 20 planned for the year, indicating a significant increase in launch activity [1][2] - However, the industry faces multiple underlying challenges, particularly in technology, supply chain support, and ecosystem development [1][2] Technology and Development - The commercialization of reusable rocket technology has not yet formed a closed loop, with domestic companies still in the single-use technology validation stage [2][7] - The current gap in rocket payload capacity between China and the U.S. is approximately four to six times, with SpaceX's Starship capable of carrying around 150 tons compared to China's Long March 5's 25 tons [3] - China is actively developing heavy-lift rocket technology, with the Long March 9 expected to achieve a low Earth orbit capacity of 150 tons by 2035, aligning with international heavy-lift capabilities [3] Cost and Pricing - The launch costs for domestic solid rockets are currently around 60,000 to 70,000 RMB per kilogram, with expectations that future liquid rockets could reduce costs to over 20,000 RMB per kilogram [3][4] - The average cost of launching a Long March 3B rocket is approximately 39 million RMB per mission, translating to about 70,900 RMB per kilogram [4] - In contrast, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has a launch cost of about 14,000 to 18,000 RMB per kilogram in a fully reusable state, highlighting the cost disparity [5][6] Industry Challenges - The severe shortage of launch capacity is identified as a core issue hindering the industry's scalable development, rather than merely high launch costs [2][8] - The industry requires the development of high-frequency, low-cost, and reliable launch vehicles to support large-scale satellite constellations [7][8] - The current state of domestic rocket production and reliability is insufficient to meet the anticipated explosive demand in the next 2-3 years, necessitating increased investment in R&D and production capabilities [8][12] Future Prospects - The focus on liquid reusable rockets is seen as a key pathway to addressing the challenges of launch capacity and cost [9][10] - Several companies are making rapid progress in vertical recovery technology, with plans for multiple reusable rocket launches and recoveries by 2026 [10][11] - Achieving a transition from single-test launches to scalable production capabilities is crucial for companies to seize industry opportunities [12]