国金证券：猪价震荡偏弱 关注二次育肥情绪变化

Group 1: Swine Industry - The rapid decline in pig prices has created a resistance to price drops, with secondary fattening entering the market causing a slight rebound, but the overall trend remains downward, and the entire industry is currently in a state of loss [2][3] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter this week is 128.25 kg per head, which remains in a historically high range, indicating that inventory levels have not significantly decreased despite falling prices [2][3] - In the coming months, pig slaughter is expected to increase month-on-month, and with enhanced control over secondary fattening, the seasonal accumulation space is limited, suggesting further downward pressure on pig prices [2][3] Group 2: Poultry Industry - As temperatures rise, the consumption of animal protein has been relatively weak, leading to continuous price adjustments in the poultry sector, with the overall industry showing signs of bottoming out [3] - The recent weak pricing environment has increased losses for slaughter enterprises, while the enthusiasm of farmers to sell has further pressured prices [3] - Yellow feather chicken prices have remained relatively strong due to improved downstream demand and supply contraction, indicating potential for better profitability as consumer demand gradually improves [3] Group 3: Cattle Industry - As of October 10, the price of live cattle in Shandong Province is 27.17 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.11% month-on-month but an increase of 13.78% year-on-year, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption peak season approaches [4] - The average purchase price for milk cows in major production areas is 3.04 yuan/kg, remaining stable month-on-month but down 2.08% year-on-year, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize and recover in the coming year [4] - Recent increases in calf and live cattle prices suggest the potential for a new cattle cycle, with the industry outlook expected to improve steadily [4] Group 4: Planting Industry - The recent harvest of new corn has caused some short-term price impacts, while ongoing negotiations regarding soybean imports between China and the U.S. create uncertainty in soybean prices [5] - The planting sector is expected to stabilize at the bottom, with the potential for improved conditions if there is a substantial reduction in grain production due to global weather disturbances [5] - The country continues to promote agricultural revitalization by increasing grain yields, which may enhance the planting industry's outlook [5]