Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-20 07:31Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that the A-shares and H-shares of Chinese banks have recorded absolute returns of 12% and 21% year-to-date, respectively, driven by improvements in the banks' fundamentals rather than a shift in investor preference for dividend returns [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The outlook for the mainland banking sector remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on banks that can reduce the impact of bond investments on earnings and capital volatility while maintaining credit growth and adequate provisioning and capital [1] - The large state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank (600036) (03968) are expected to achieve a more sustainable recovery in net interest margins compared to their peers, indicating greater potential for shareholder returns [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs has slightly adjusted its forecasts for the banks' pre-provision operating profit and net profit for 2025 to 2027, reflecting improved prospects for fee income growth, weakened credit demand, declining investment income contributions, and increased provisions [1] - The target price for covered H-shares of Chinese banks has been reduced by 1% to 9%, with a preference for China Merchants Bank, which receives a "Buy" rating, and its target price adjusted from HKD 53.34 to HKD 52.98 [1] - "Buy" ratings are also given to Postal Savings Bank (601658) (01658), Bank of China (601988) (03988), and China Construction Bank (601939) (00939) H-shares [1]