Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-20 08:48Core Insights - China's steel exports from January to September reached 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with an average export price of $696.7 per ton [1][2] - The import of iron ore was 918 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with an average import price of $96 per ton [1][2] - Despite challenges such as a slight decline in global manufacturing PMI and new export order indices in contraction, China's steel maintains international competitiveness due to price advantages [2] Export Performance - In September, steel exports amounted to 10.465 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% [1][2] - The overall value of China's goods trade from January to September was 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports valued at 19.94 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - The price of hot-rolled coil exports is $20-60 per ton lower than major competitors like India, Turkey, and Japan, helping to alleviate domestic supply pressure [2] - The steel industry faces potential export growth challenges due to a high base effect from last year and ongoing trade remedy investigations from multiple countries [2] Downstream Industry Impact - Exports of electromechanical products reached 12.07 trillion yuan, a 9.6% increase, accounting for 60.5% of total exports [3] - The automotive and shipbuilding sectors showed strong growth, with automotive exports at 4.95 million units (up 14.8%) and ship exports at 5,226 units (up 23.5%) [3] Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of mid-October, total steel inventory was 15.8226 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.2% [4] - Steel prices and profits are declining, with rebar, hot-rolled, medium-thick plates, and cold-rolled prices down by 50, 80, 70, and 40 yuan per ton respectively [4] - The profit margins for various steel products are negative, indicating ongoing financial pressure on steel manufacturers [4]