Core Viewpoint - Haixi New Drug officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 20, opening at HKD 102 per share, a rise of 18.06% from the issue price of HKD 86.4. The company's performance heavily relies on the national volume-based procurement (VBP) plan, with over 90% of revenue from this channel from 2022 to 2024, raising concerns about sustainability and profitability due to price pressures [1][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be approximately CNY 212.465 million, CNY 316.633 million, and CNY 466.683 million, respectively, with profits of about CNY 68.981 million, CNY 117.454 million, and CNY 136.079 million [4][5]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to decline by 7.9 percentage points in 2024 compared to 2023, resulting in a net profit margin of 29.2% [5][6]. Group 2: Dependency on Procurement - Haixi New Drug's revenue is highly dependent on a few products, with over 90% of revenue from procurement channels in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The combined revenue contribution from Anbili® and Haihuitong® is 81.3%, 79.9%, and 72.2% for the respective years [5][6]. - The prices of key products have significantly decreased due to procurement, with Haihuitong® dropping from an average price of CNY 3.56 to CNY 2.19, a decline of 38.48% [5][6]. Group 3: Innovation Pipeline - The company is attempting to develop a "second growth curve" through its pipeline of innovative drugs, currently having four drugs in development targeting oncology, ophthalmology, and respiratory diseases [7][8]. - The innovative drug C019199 is in I/II clinical stages, with plans for a Phase III trial in late 2025, but faces intense competition from similar drugs globally [8]. - R&D expenditures are projected to increase from CNY 34.82 million in 2022 to CNY 67.525 million in 2024, but this may still be insufficient to support the high costs associated with innovative drug development [8][9]. Group 4: Market Perception and Challenges - The first-day performance of Haixi New Drug reflects short-term market recognition of its generics business and innovative drug potential, but long-term challenges include reducing reliance on procurement channels and accelerating the R&D process [9].
靠仿制药年入超4亿元，海西新药登陆港交所