9月新房销售环比上涨，商品房库存连续7个月下降

Core Viewpoint - In September, new home sales increased month-on-month, while the inventory of commercial housing has decreased for seven consecutive months, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1][5]. Price Trends - In September, the sales prices of new residential properties in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.4% respectively month-on-month, with first-tier cities experiencing the smallest decline [2] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a price drop of 0.7%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, with Shanghai showing a 5.6% increase [2][3]. Sales Performance - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, while sales revenue fell by 7.9% [1][4]. - In September alone, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 85.31 million square meters, and sales revenue was 80.25 billion yuan, representing month-on-month increases of 48.52% and 47.28% respectively [4][5]. Inventory Levels - By the end of September, the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 75.928 million square meters, a decrease of 2.41 million square meters from August, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline [5]. - The reduction in inventory is attributed to increased promotional efforts and favorable policies, leading to a relatively high average absorption rate of around 40% despite an 80% increase in supply [5]. Construction Activity - From January to September, the new construction area was 45.399 million square meters, down 18.9%, but the decline has narrowed compared to earlier months [6]. - The relaxation of pre-sale standards by some developers has improved the enthusiasm for new construction, providing better support for cash flow [6]. Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see an increase in new supply from quality land acquisitions by leading developers, which may support new home sales in core cities [6]. - The real estate market is anticipated to continue its recovery, but the "price-for-volume" strategy is likely to persist in the short term [6].