前三季度商品零售同比增长4.6%，国补效应待延续

Economic Overview - In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% [1] - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 4,197.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1] - The growth in retail sales was driven by the "old-for-new" policy, particularly in categories like home appliances and audio-visual equipment, which saw retail sales growth of 25.3% [1] Consumer Goods Performance - The retail sales of goods reached 32,488.8 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% in the first three quarters [1] - The restaurant income was 40,989 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.3% [1] - In September, restaurant income was 4,509 billion yuan, marking a growth of only 0.9%, the lowest growth rate in two years [5] Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy continues to show effectiveness, with significant growth in specific categories such as home appliances and communication equipment [1] - The upcoming changes in the subsidy policy for the fourth quarter will be a crucial factor affecting the year-on-year growth of consumer goods [3] Restaurant Industry Insights - The restaurant sector is experiencing significant volatility, with a year-on-year growth of only 3.3% in the first three quarters [5] - The competition in the restaurant industry is intensifying, leading to a focus on cost-effectiveness and consumer experience [6] - The fourth quarter is expected to see increased consumer activity due to holiday seasons, but the overall market performance remains to be observed [7]