宏观面偏暖 沪铜偏强运行【10月20日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown resilience amid easing US-China trade tensions and stable economic performance in China, although domestic demand remains weak and social inventory continues to accumulate [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Copper opened slightly higher and continued to strengthen, closing up 0.73% [1] - As of October 20, domestic electrolytic copper inventory reached 195,500 tons, an increase of 12,400 tons compared to October 16 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about tight supply persist due to previous disruptions at the mining level, with domestic copper concentrate processing fees hovering around -40 USD/ton [1] - The increase in inventory is attributed to a significant inflow of imported copper and limited outflow from warehouses, as downstream consumption shows limited growth potential [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jin Yuan Futures suggests that the resumption of US-China negotiations may boost market risk appetite, with expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Despite slightly lower-than-expected domestic consumption, the market remains in a tight balance, with supply growth from mines below 1% this year and limited growth in global smelting output [1] - The combination of easing macroeconomic disturbances and strong cost support is expected to lead to a short-term upward trend in copper prices [1]