对话CPM Group中国区总经理曲硕：金价也有周期——长涨短调

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by a combination of increased safe-haven demand, shifts in asset allocation logic, and market sentiment [3][5]. Group 1: Historical Trends and Price Movements - Historically, international gold prices exhibit a "long rise, short adjustment" trend, with significant price increases followed by notable corrections [3][4]. - From 1978 to 2019, gold prices experienced multiple cycles of "rise-adjustment-shock," with notable peaks and troughs, including a rise to $1800 per ounce in 2011 and a subsequent drop to nearly $1000 per ounce by 2016 [4]. - The current upward trend began in 2019, with gold prices surpassing $2000 per ounce post-pandemic, and predictions suggest a potential peak in 2025 [4][8]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Current Gold Prices - The primary driver of the current gold price increase is safe-haven demand, influenced by geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [5][6]. - Secondary factors include inflation and monetary policy, although their impact is currently limited due to a decrease in U.S. inflation rates and a relatively stable Federal Reserve interest rate [6]. - Manufacturing demand for gold is declining as high prices lead industries to reduce usage, negatively impacting overall demand [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - Short-term predictions indicate that gold prices may peak in October 2025, with a potential decline to the $3800-$4000 per ounce range thereafter [8]. - Long-term investment in gold is recommended for asset preservation against inflation and geopolitical risks, with a suggested allocation of 10%-25% of personal assets in gold [8][9]. - Current market conditions suggest that it may not be advisable for ordinary investors to buy gold immediately due to high risks associated with potential price corrections [9].