DLS MARKETS：10年期收益率跌破4%，市场押注美联储继续降息

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a classic flight-to-safety trend amid credit concerns and trade tensions, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% for the first time since April, and the 2-year yield hitting a new low since 2022 [2] - The recent surge in Treasury prices reflects market fears regarding credit risks associated with regional banks and highlights the continued preference for U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven amid global uncertainties [2][3] - The regional bank stock index faced its largest decline since April, prompting significant capital inflows into the Treasury market, with the 2-year yield dropping below 3.4% and the 10-year yield reaching 3.93%, the lowest level since April 7 [2] Group 2 - The second wave of safe-haven buying in the Treasury market in October follows renewed trade tensions, compounded by the partial government shutdown delaying key economic data releases, increasing market uncertainty [3] - Market expectations have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the October 29 meeting, with some institutions predicting 2025 could be the strongest year for Treasuries since 2020 [3] - The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index has risen by 6.6% as of last Thursday, indicating strong demand for bonds, while Morgan Stanley's rate strategy team believes there is further room for the 10-year yield to decline [3] Group 3 - The upcoming September CPI data is anticipated to be a critical variable in the short term, with economists predicting a core CPI month-on-month change to remain flat and an overall CPI year-on-year rate of 3.1%, still above the Fed's 2% inflation target [4] - Despite concerns regarding the CPI data potentially preventing the 10-year yield from falling significantly below 4%, market expectations for the Fed's rate-cutting path remain strong [4] - The safe-haven attributes of U.S. Treasuries are being reaffirmed amid global economic slowdowns, rising geopolitical risks, and domestic policy uncertainties, contrasting with the chaotic market conditions seen in April [4]