小盘股热度回归：短期领跑，大盘仍是长期赢家？

Core Insights - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, are experiencing a resurgence in 2025, but they are unlikely to catch up with the S&P 500 index, which has historically outperformed them [1][2] - The Russell 2000 index has risen approximately 10% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has increased over 13% during the same period [1] - Despite a recent rally, small-cap stocks have not outperformed large-cap stocks in a calendar year since 2020, when the Russell 2000 rose 18.4% compared to the S&P 500's 16.3% [1] Performance Analysis - The current bull market has significantly favored large-cap stocks, with the S&P 500 continuously setting new records since early 2024 [2] - Small-cap stocks are benefiting from a favorable economic environment characterized by lower interest rates and robust economic growth, but their recent performance is driven more by optimism than by solid earnings [2][5] Earnings and Valuation - A significant portion of the Russell 2000 consists of companies with poor or no earnings records, with 43% of its constituents not reporting positive earnings [3] - Stocks without reliable earnings in the Russell 2000 have surged by 55% year-to-date, while profitable stocks have only increased by 8% [3] - Analysts expect small-cap stocks to achieve stronger earnings growth in 2025, with an estimated EPS growth of 26.5% for the Russell 2000 compared to 10.3% for the Russell 1000 [5] Market Dynamics - The rebound in small-cap stocks is largely attributed to expectations of improved earnings driven by lower interest rates, which allow these companies to refinance more easily [5][6] - The trend of private equity and venture capital keeping high-growth potential companies private has contributed to the underperformance of small-cap stocks over the past decade [6] - Recent regulatory changes allowing ordinary investors to invest in private equity may further impact the availability and performance of small-cap stocks [6] Investor Sentiment - Despite challenges, long-term investors focused on small-cap stocks remain optimistic, viewing them as a sustainable asset class [7] - There is a trend of financially sound small-cap companies acquiring their portfolios from private equity, providing liquidity to these firms [7]