淘汰赛进入倒计时！Momenta曹旭东：明年中国城市辅助驾驶仅存两三家玩家，全球可能就三四家【附自动驾驶行业市场分析】

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Momenta, Cao Xudong, predicts that the landscape of urban assisted driving will stabilize next year, with only two to three players remaining in China and three to four globally [2]. Group 1: Autonomous Driving Levels - Autonomous driving is categorized into six levels according to the SAE standards, with Level 0 being fully human-driven and Level 5 representing complete automation without human intervention [2][3]. - Level 4 is considered "unmanned driving" in specified scenarios, while Level 5 is the ultimate goal of full automation across all environments [2]. Group 2: Industry Approaches - Traditional automakers adopt a "gradual" approach, starting with lower levels of assisted driving (L1/L2) and progressively enhancing their capabilities [6]. - In contrast, tech companies like Baidu and Huawei pursue a "leapfrog" strategy, aiming directly for higher levels (L4 and L5) due to their strengths in technology and data processing [6]. Group 3: Challenges in Development - The development of L4 and L5 faces significant challenges, including the need for substantial funding, high-tech talent, and a long-term focus on R&D [7]. - Automakers often collaborate with tech companies to leverage mutual strengths in developing autonomous driving technologies [7]. Group 4: Current Industry Landscape - Various companies are at different levels of autonomous driving capabilities, with traditional manufacturers like BYD at L2 and tech firms like Baidu and Huawei at L4/L5 [8]. - New entrants in the automotive sector, such as NIO and Xpeng, are targeting L3 development, while startups like Zhixing and Pony.ai are also focusing on L4/L5 [8]. Group 5: Future Predictions - The transition to fully autonomous driving (L5) is expected to take 8-10 years, with significant barriers in regulations, data, computing power, and liability recognition [10]. - The current phase of assisted driving is viewed as a long-term transitional solution until L5 becomes a reality, which may lead to a significant reduction in private car ownership [10].