涨幅超70%！表现胜过黄金，这种贵金属为何价格暴涨？

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen significant price increases in 2023, with silver prices reaching historical highs, surpassing $50 per ounce for the first time on October 9, and peaking at $53.765 per ounce on October 17, marking an over 70% increase since January 2 [1][5]. Market Demand and Supply - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, there is a high demand for silver bars, but limited availability, with some stores requiring a one-month wait for large orders [2]. - The supply of silver bars is tight, with many online platforms showing zero inventory for smaller quantities, indicating a strong demand-supply imbalance [2]. - China ranks among the top five countries globally in silver reserves, holding approximately 11% of the world's total, with a projected silver production of 3,426 tons and a recovery of 1,233 tons in 2024 [4]. Price Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to several factors, including global economic and geopolitical risks, a weakening dollar, and increased central bank purchases of gold, which enhance the investment appeal of precious metals [5]. - The industrial demand for silver is significant, with an expected total consumption of 9,428 tons in 2024, of which 8,567 tons will be driven by industrial applications, particularly in the electrical and electronic sectors [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while precious metals have seen substantial gains, there is still room for growth, especially as they serve as a hedge against inflation and a potential alternative to the dollar [6]. - However, potential risks include a rapid decline in global inflation, a strengthening dollar, or a reduction in geopolitical tensions, which could diminish the demand for precious metals [5][6].