核心CPI温和上涨，消费向好积极信号

Core Insights - The article highlights the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in stimulating consumer demand in China, with a focus on the positive impact of the "trade-in" policy on household consumption [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - In the first three quarters of this year, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, with a notable rise of 1.0% in September, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [2]. - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the previous year, reinforcing its role as a key driver of economic growth [2]. Policy Measures - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" was introduced in March, outlining 30 key tasks across eight areas, including income enhancement and service consumption improvement [3]. - The government allocated 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the trade-in policy, which has led to double-digit growth in retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment [3]. Retail Performance - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 4.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a significant jump of 20.5% in September, marking a 17.1 percentage point acceleration from August [3][4]. - The smart home appliance sector saw growth rates exceeding 30% [4]. Automotive Sector - The automotive market is becoming increasingly active, with over 8.3 million trade-in applications submitted by September 10, averaging more than 30,000 applications per day [4]. Financial Policies - The central bank has implemented personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies, effectively reducing credit costs for residents and businesses, thereby stimulating consumption potential [4]. - Service retail sales grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points [4]. Future Considerations - Improving residents' income and optimizing income distribution are crucial for boosting consumption levels [5]. - Enhancing consumer expectations is also a key focus, as it significantly influences consumption decisions [5]. - A coordinated policy framework is essential to maximize the effectiveness of measures aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [5].