10月LPR报价保持不变 专家预计四季度或将再下调

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains stable, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting stable economic conditions and policy rates [1][2]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, showing an acceleration compared to the previous year [1]. - The overall economic operation remains stable, supporting the decision to keep LPR unchanged [1]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a possibility of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions by the central bank before the end of the year, which could lead to a further decline in LPR [2]. - The central bank has cumulatively lowered policy rates by 0.8 percentage points since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, resulting in a significant decrease in financing costs for the real economy [2]. Housing Market Policies - It is anticipated that the regulatory authorities may further strengthen policies to stabilize the housing market, potentially leading to a more significant reduction in mortgage rates [2]. - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for implementing growth-stabilizing policies, with expectations for increased credit supply from financial institutions [2]. External Factors - The external environment, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, has created a favorable context for domestic monetary policy adjustments [3]. - The overall stability of the domestic economic situation will be a key factor in determining whether LPR adjustments will occur [3].