美联储释放双重信号！鲍威尔提前终止缩表，金融市场乱成一锅粥？

Core Viewpoint - The market is oscillating between expectations of monetary easing and concerns about risks, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements drawing significant attention from global investors [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - Powell indicated that interest rate cuts are likely to continue, with the market estimating a 96% probability of a cut in October [5] - He emphasized that the current inflation is primarily due to one-time impacts from tariffs, suggesting that rate cuts should be gradual to avoid excessive market stimulation [5][8] - The Fed may end its balance sheet reduction early, which is akin to increasing liquidity in the financial system [5][7] Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, creating uncertainty in assessing the economic situation [3] - Powell's comments serve as a signal to reassure the market amid concerns about liquidity, especially given rising overnight borrowing rates [8] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stocks initially rebounded, but a subsequent statement from former President Trump regarding tariffs on Chinese goods caused a sharp market decline [10] - The ongoing trade tensions and government shutdown contribute to market volatility, making it difficult for investors to predict future movements [12] Group 4: Key Upcoming Events - The CPI data set to be released on October 24 will be crucial for determining the Fed's future rate cut strategy, with potential implications for market stability [12][14] - The ongoing government shutdown poses risks to economic data publication and policy implementation, increasing market uncertainty [14]