当流动性潮水褪去，黄金和股市都躲不掉抛售？

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing a unique situation where gold prices are surging like in 1979, while stock markets are reflecting the prosperity of 1999, despite the contrasting economic conditions of both eras [1] - Analysts suggest that the rise in gold during a new stock market boom is driven by investors seeking to hedge against policy uncertainties, particularly in the U.S., indicating a cognitive dissonance among global investors [1][2] - Ruchir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International, attributes the simultaneous rise of gold and stock markets to massive liquidity injected by governments and central banks, with U.S. money market fund holdings reaching $7.5 trillion, significantly above long-term trends [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the Federal Reserve's claims of "moderate tightening," nominal interest rates remain below nominal GDP growth, keeping financial conditions loose, while the U.S. maintains the highest deficit levels among developed economies [2] - The liquidity in the market is closely tied to risk appetite, with increased confidence in financial asset appreciation leading to more funds being invested, supported by expectations of government intervention during downturns [2] - The rise of new trading applications and zero-commission investment tools has made it easier for ordinary investors to buy financial assets, contributing to the influx of liquidity into various market segments [2] Group 3 - The relationship between liquidity and the simultaneous rise of gold and stock prices has historically been disconnected, with past data showing zero correlation between the two during different market conditions [3] - Sharma remains optimistic about gold in the long term, especially after 2022 when central banks began increasing gold reserves as a substitute asset, although he expresses concern about the potential backlash from excessive liquidity [3] - The current market dynamics, including the rise of non-traditional safe-haven commodities and high-risk assets, do not reflect the inflationary fears typical of the 1970s [3] Group 4 - If the market genuinely feared inflation, this sentiment would be reflected in long-term bond yields and traditional inflation-hedging tools, but current bond market signals indicate expectations of long-term inflation remaining below 2.5% [4] - The Federal Reserve appears to be ignoring asset price inflation, and if consumer price inflation accelerates, it may force the Fed to tighten policies, potentially leading to unexpected shocks for investors who bought gold as a hedge [4]