多空因素激烈角逐，金价站上历史关口后的抉择

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, trade relations, and monetary policy expectations, with a notable increase in demand for safe-haven assets due to renewed conflicts in the Middle East [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices reached a high of $4,274.53 per ounce but later retreated to around $4,247.30, influenced by easing international trade tensions [1]. - Year-to-date, gold has surged over 64%, marking one of the largest increases in recent years, with a historical peak of $4,379.38 reached last Friday before closing at $4,247.17, reflecting a 1.8% decline [1][3]. - The market has seen a weekly increase of 5.69%, achieving a ninth consecutive week of gains, indicating strong upward momentum despite recent pullbacks [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current weekly support level is around the $4,000 mark, with a significant drop below this level needed to confirm a potential top formation or larger correction [3]. - Resistance levels to watch include the $4,308 mark, which, if surpassed, could trigger a new acceleration in gold prices, with subsequent targets at $4,492 and $4,553 [4]. - The market is experiencing record volatility, with the potential for further upward movement contingent on maintaining support at $4,000 and closing above $4,308 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the September CPI report, is expected to play a crucial role in shaping market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting [4]. - Investor sentiment remains stable despite price fluctuations, with 60% of Wall Street analysts predicting a rise in gold prices, while retail investors show even greater optimism at 68% [4]. - The interplay of geopolitical risks and potential monetary easing suggests that while short-term corrections may occur, the long-term outlook for gold remains strong, with the possibility of surpassing the $5,000 mark if conflicts escalate or policies are more accommodative than expected [5].