特朗普关税“神助攻”：纽约铜市失序，伦金所借势复苏

Core Insights - Trump's erratic trade policies have unexpectedly given the London Metal Exchange (LME) an advantage over its New York competitor, the Comex, due to the impact of tariffs on copper imports [1][5][10] - The LME's structure allows for trading copper stored in global bonded warehouses, which are not subject to tariffs, providing a "pure global price" unaffected by tariff fluctuations [1][2][4] - In contrast, Comex has seen a significant decline in copper futures trading volume, with a 34% drop in average daily volume compared to the previous year, largely due to tariff uncertainties [1][5] Trading Volume Comparison - LME's average daily trading volume for copper futures has increased by 4% compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a recovery from previous challenges [1] - Comex's average daily trading volume for copper futures has decreased by 34% in the first nine months of this year compared to last year, reflecting the negative impact of tariff-related volatility [1][2] Market Dynamics - The recent focus on the copper market has been driven by accidents at major copper mines, pushing prices to near-record highs of over $11,000 per ton [5] - The LME has benefited from its design that is inherently unaffected by tariffs, while Comex has struggled with the volatility caused by tariff speculation [4][5] Tariff Impact - The initial expectation was that Trump's tariffs would cover refined copper, but the actual policy targeted semi-finished products, leading to confusion and volatility in the market [2][3] - The LME's ability to provide prices free from tariff impacts has been significant, as noted by its CEO, Matthew Chamberlain [2][3] Price Premiums - The premium for copper stored in Comex warehouses has reached a record high of approximately $3,000 per ton compared to LME prices, driven by increased demand before anticipated tariffs [7][9] - Despite the absence of tariffs on refined copper, the ongoing uncertainty continues to keep Comex prices elevated compared to LME prices [10]