美银Hartnett：当美国负债38万亿美元时，该买入美债、美股还是黄金？这很棘手

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the challenges investors face as global central banks enter a rate-cutting cycle, with various asset classes presenting unique dilemmas [1] - The U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the appeal of sovereign bonds as a safe haven [1] - Corporate bonds are offering insufficient risk compensation due to narrow credit spreads, while U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, indicating significant correction pressure [1] Group 2 - Despite a cautious outlook, there has been a significant inflow of funds into risk assets, particularly technology stocks and gold, with $24.6 billion flowing out of cash assets in the past week [2][4] - The stock market attracted $28.1 billion, with technology stocks seeing a record inflow of $10.4 billion in a single week [2] - The gold market has experienced a cumulative inflow of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical high [4] Group 3 - The Chinese stock market has seen its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, amounting to $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite amid rate cut expectations [7] - Global stock market capitalization has surged by $20.8 trillion this year due to the ongoing global rate-cutting trend, although risks are accumulating beneath the surface [9] - Hartnett warns of potential economic deterioration if asset prices decline and impact the wealthy, alongside emerging cracks in the credit market [9] Group 4 - Hartnett's "BIG" strategy emphasizes a focus on bonds, international markets, and gold, maintaining a bullish stance on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds with expectations of yields dropping below 4% [10][11] - The forecast for global earnings per share (EPS) growth is 9% over the next 12 months, surpassing market consensus, with a shift from "American exceptionalism" to "global rebalancing" anticipated [13] - Hartnett remains extremely bullish on gold, predicting prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce by spring next year, despite current high positioning in fund manager surveys [14][16]