瑞银：内地房地产明年下半年将见底回暖 租金企稳是关键先兆

Group 1: Real Estate Market Outlook - UBS's head of Asia Pacific real estate research, Lin Zhenhong, emphasizes that rental trends are key indicators for market recovery, maintaining the forecast that the mainland real estate market will bottom out in the second half of 2026 [1] - Lin explains that only when rental prices stabilize will residents reassess the cost-effectiveness of home buying, leading to a shift from renting to buying [1] - Over the past three to four years, declining property prices and rents have led many to postpone home purchases, resulting in a vibrant rental market in first-tier cities, where about half of the population relies on renting for housing needs [1] Group 2: Market Segmentation and Trends - The mainland real estate market is currently experiencing structural differentiation, with strong sales in the high-end residential segment due to previous price controls limiting developers' willingness to build high-end projects [1] - In Hong Kong, despite current pressures from rising unemployment and short-term oversupply, a supply-demand imbalance is expected in the next three to four years, leading to a positive outlook for the residential market [1] Group 3: Hong Kong Office Market Insights - UBS Greater China real estate analyst Liang Zhanjia notes that with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is expected to decrease from around 3% to 2.2% by the end of the year, further dropping to 1.6% next year, which will support the Hong Kong property market [2] - The office market in Hong Kong is anticipated to see a steady increase in rental rates from 2027 to 2028 due to a significant reduction in new office supply by 2026, although rental prices are expected to continue declining until the end of 2026 [2] - A recent major transaction involving Alibaba and Ant Group purchasing a commercial office building for $925 million (approximately 7 billion HKD) has sparked discussions about a potential recovery in the Hong Kong office market [2] Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Currently, investors account for only 20% of buyers in the office market, significantly lower than the historical average of 50%, primarily due to cautious bank attitudes towards office mortgage loans and high interest rates affecting rental yields [3] - Despite the low investor participation, signs of a bottoming out in rental prices for Grade A office spaces in Hong Kong are emerging [3]