富达国际：高市早苗任日本首相几成定局，日股仍有上升潜力

Group 1: Political and Economic Context - The new leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, supports fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, which is expected to benefit the Japanese stock market and pose a downside risk to the yen [1] - Following a period of uncertainty, Takaichi is likely to become Japan's first female Prime Minister, which has reignited market enthusiasm for the "Takaichi trade," leading to a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index by 3.37% [1] - Despite political changes, the framework supporting Japan's economic growth remains solid, and the country is unlikely to revert to deflation [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - Japan is transitioning from a deflationary environment to a moderate inflation scenario, with core inflation expected to exceed 3% by early 2025 and decline to around 2% by the end of next year [2] - The shift towards inflation is increasingly driven by wage growth and coordinated policies between the government and the central bank, rather than solely by rising costs [2][3] Group 3: Corporate Governance and Shareholder Returns - Corporate governance reforms are reshaping Japanese companies' capital allocation and shareholder return attitudes, with a significant increase in share buybacks projected for the 2024 fiscal year, up nearly 90% year-on-year [6] - Japanese companies are increasingly focusing on improving capital efficiency and enhancing communication with investors, leading to a structural growth theme in the stock market [6][7] - The average return on equity for Japanese companies is expected to rise from 6%-8% in the 2000s to 10% by the 2026 fiscal year and potentially 11% by the 2028 fiscal year [7] Group 4: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The banking sector is benefiting from a favorable environment characterized by strong net interest margins and low borrowing costs, leading to improved profitability and return on equity [8] - The construction industry is also showing promising investment prospects, with contractors focusing on high-margin projects and improving profit margins due to a tight labor market [8] - Digital transformation remains a key structural growth theme, with Japanese companies accelerating automation to address labor challenges posed by an aging population [9]