中国GDP被低估了？美学者称：中国故意压低GDP，实际规模或超美国

Core Viewpoint - The debate surrounding the underestimation of China's GDP suggests that if more scientific and comprehensive statistical methods were applied, China's economic scale might already be close to or even surpassing that of the United States, potentially reshaping the global economic landscape [1][19]. Statistical Methodology - The differences in GDP calculation methods between the U.S. and China are significant, with the U.S. primarily using the expenditure approach while China employs the production approach, leading to potentially divergent results for the same economic activities [3][5]. - The U.S. includes certain non-market activities in its GDP calculations, such as illegal drug trade and virtual rent for owner-occupied housing, which are excluded from China's GDP calculations to ensure only legal and verifiable activities are reflected [5][8]. Economic Structure - China's economy is characterized by a strong emphasis on the real economy, particularly in manufacturing, infrastructure, and exports, which are often undervalued in nominal GDP figures [7][10]. - In terms of energy production, China's electricity generation reached 9,456.4 billion kWh in 2023, double that of the U.S., indicating a robust industrial activity [10][11]. Manufacturing and Technological Advancements - China's manufacturing output is significantly higher than that of the U.S., with steel production at 1.384 billion tons (17 times that of the U.S.) and cement production at 22 times that of the U.S. [11][13]. - The rise of Chinese companies in high-tech sectors such as electric vehicles, drones, and solar energy is notable, with electric vehicle exports projected to reach $40 billion in 2024, capturing over 60% of the global market [13][19]. Strategic Considerations - China appears to adopt a cautious approach regarding its GDP figures, possibly as a strategic move to avoid provoking geopolitical tensions that could arise from claiming economic superiority over the U.S. [15][17]. - The historical context of Japan's economic rise in the 1970s serves as a lesson for China, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a low profile while continuing to strengthen its economic foundations [17][19]. Future Outlook - China's focus on emerging industries such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and aerospace is expected to facilitate a transition from quantitative to qualitative economic growth, leading to a natural surpassing of U.S. GDP figures without relying on statistical manipulation [19][21]. - The true strength of China's economy is reflected in its industrial output and technological advancements, suggesting that future competition will hinge on industry, technology, and institutional capabilities rather than mere numerical GDP comparisons [21].