中美经济暗战2025！美国GDP冲上30万亿美元，中国增速翻倍反超

Economic Overview - The US GDP has surpassed $30 trillion, with a nominal GDP of $30.48 trillion and an annualized growth rate of 3.84% in the first half of the year, driven primarily by consumer spending [2] - China's nominal GDP stands at $19.23 trillion, with a purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted GDP of $40.72 trillion, accounting for 19.68% of the global economy, significantly higher than the US's 14.65% [3] - The US economy grew by 2.1% in the first half of the year, while China's GDP growth rate was 4.8%, nearly double that of the US [3][5] Consumer Spending and Retail - In the US, personal consumption expenditures increased by 4.5% in the first half of the year, but the savings rate dropped to 3.8%, indicating financial strain on consumers [5] - China's retail sales rose by 6.2%, with significant growth in dining and tourism sectors, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [3][6] Trade and Exports - The US trade deficit expanded to $1.1 trillion, driven by high demand for imported energy and consumer goods [2] - China's total export value in the first half of the year was $2.45 trillion, with a growth rate of 5.9%, and a notable 18% increase in electric vehicle exports [3][6] Manufacturing and Investment - In the US, manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose from 48.7 to 50.9, while corporate equipment spending increased by 6.3% [2] - China's industrial output grew by 6.4%, with high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.5%, indicating a strong focus on technology investments [3][6] Inflation and Costs - The US is experiencing inflationary pressures, with food prices expected to rise by 3% and gasoline prices increasing from $3.5 to $4.0 per gallon [5] - China's chip self-sufficiency rate improved from 45% to 50%, and the country leads in global market share for new energy batteries, exceeding 70% [3][6] Financial Markets and Economic Projections - The US stock market rose by 12% in the first half of the year, but volatility increased by 15%, indicating underlying market instability [8] - The IMF projects a slowdown in US growth to 2.1% in 2026, while China's growth is expected to decelerate to 4.0%, but its PPP advantage remains strong [9][11] Global Economic Dynamics - The competition between the US and China is reshaping global economic dynamics, with China contributing significantly to global growth and the US facing challenges to its financial dominance [11] - The trade war has led to a redirection of Chinese exports towards Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, mitigating the impact of US tariffs [9][11]