预计：我国2025年GDP上涨5.1%，突破140万亿元，约为19.6万亿美元

Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrates strong resilience amid multiple pressures, achieving a GDP of 1,015,036 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price changes [1][3][4]. Economic Performance - The nominal GDP increased from 975,357.4 billion RMB in the previous year to 1,015,036 billion RMB, with a net increase of 39,678.6 billion RMB, resulting in a nominal growth rate of 4.1% [3][4]. - The difference between the nominal growth rate and the real growth rate indicates a price level decline of approximately 1.1% compared to 2020, suggesting some "contraction" pressure [3][4]. Future Projections - If the current economic recovery momentum continues, a real economic growth of around 5.1% is expected for the entire year of 2025, with nominal GDP projected to increase by approximately 4% from 2024, reaching between 140 trillion and 141 trillion RMB [4][6]. - The GDP in USD terms for the first three quarters of 2025 is estimated at approximately 141,681.89 billion USD, maintaining China's position as the second-largest economy globally [6][9]. Factors Supporting Growth - Robust macroeconomic policies have provided a solid foundation for stable economic performance, with proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies enhancing market vitality [10]. - The acceleration of new and old kinetic energy conversion, particularly in high-tech industries such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, is driving economic growth [10]. - Continuous release of domestic demand potential and effective investment in infrastructure and green transformation are contributing to economic stability [10]. Challenges Ahead - Despite positive growth indicators, challenges remain, including insufficient effective demand in certain sectors and rising uncertainties in the external environment [11]. - The focus will be on maintaining a stable yet progressive approach to ensure high-quality development and consolidate the positive economic recovery trend [11][12].